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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-12-20T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-12-20T00:48Z
CME Note: associated to the X1.8 flare with peak time 2014-12-20T00:24Z. Shock arrival time verification still pending. Another shock was observed on 2014-12-23T10:33Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-12-22T14:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-12-22T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2014 Dec 21 1211 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
CACTUS issued a halo CME alert at 10:44 UT on December 21, about a CME first detected by CACTUS on LASCO C2 imagery at 00:48 UT on December 20. This CME is probably associated to the X1.8 flare of December 20. It is a partial halo CME with an angular extent of about 180 degrees, and the main bulk directed towards the southwest. Based on LASCO C3 images, an Earth directed speed of 1180 km/s was derived. The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth with estimated arrival time 10h UT on December 22. The CME from December 19 is expected to arrive at Earth on December 21. As a result, active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes

Lead Time: 26.28 hour(s)
Difference: 4.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-12-21T12:11Z

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